8 Mar 2012

Bleg: Climate change and agricultural yield

Does anyone know if CC models have estimated the cost of adapting to precipitation patterns that change in both volume and timing? My intuition is that places that get less rain are in trouble but places that get more rain are not necessarily better off if rain comes with different variation.

Any thoughts on this?


  1. Ask Mike Roberts at North Carolina State University.

  2. Higher CO2 levels encourage plant growth and should help yields to some degree (weeds too, of course). I'm sure someone has done some rough work on this, but I'd guess the models are so uncertain at this point they are not particularly useful.

  3. Models like USDA's REAP may do something like this http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/tb1916/ .

  4. good question. Some companies would would care and would be first to change (due to $$ and no political agenda): SwissRe and MunichRe.

    I'm not sure of the details, but in the press SwissRe allude to updating their proprietary models for this

    *other point: why no more voting stars on the site, David?


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