3 Dec 2010

Anything but water

H/Ts to GG and MG

1 comment:

  1. RE: the Peak Oil article:
    ultimate recovery presumably depends upon price (emphasis mine)

    It never ceases to amaze me how consistently people make these circular arguments. Economists in particular seem to be unable to question their assumptions, or even admit the extent to which those assumptions condition their conclusions.

    Having said that, it's hard to doubt that there will be more $100 oil than $20 oil. The problem with Hubbert's model is also an unchallenged assumption, that of fixed price. When the effects of price are factored in, a "peak plateau" (which Stuart on The Oil Drum called years ago as the "bumpy plateau") seems the most likely outcome for some period of time. But given the finite nature of the resource, a decline is inevitable at some point, price signals notwithstanding. It's probably impossible to predict when that point will occur.


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