So how about the people who want to get up, to do something? Well, they need to coordinate their actions. What kind of results might we expect to see? This article [pdf] describes scientists' attempt to simulate the actions of many people -- realistic actions -- using computer models.
A good start, but what about those pesky humans? They are not often as reliable as computer models. This article [pdf] discusses a surprisingly underdeveloped academic niche -- sociologists looking at the human response to climate change. Why is the field underdeveloped? There's the academic reason ("they tend to be more interested in general theories rather than specific topics"). That doesn't mean that nothing useful is emerging. One study looked at how local communities in the US responded to the threat of climate change:
“The most at risk and least responsible were most likely to participate, and the most responsible and least at risk were least likely,” says Zahran. If it suited an area well to emit loads of carbon dioxide and it never suffered the consequences, then the area would be unlikely to participate actively in efforts to reduce emissions."Why? Free-riding. (Hey! I thought that economists invented that!)
This last paper reminds me of the talk I heard last week at the Brower Center. David Orr (Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics at Oberlin College) discussed climate change (we're screwed) and mountaintop removal (WV rivers and communities are screwed). The connection between the two? It's REALLY hard to coordinate those who will suffer to take action in opposition to those who are benefiting from the status quo. (Students in my class will read Olson's book on collective action to learn about this issue.)
Gee. Sounds familiar.
Orr gave some ugly facts:
- In one week, more explosives are used for mountaintop removal than are used in one month in Iraq and Afghanistan. Need a villain? Massey Energy.
- Global temperatures are up by 0.7C, and we are locked into a 1.6C increase.
- Since climate change is characterized by non-linear, stochastic feedback (things can get bad, unexpectedly, and quickly), we are in trouble if we cross the tipping point
- The tipping point is at +2C, which will (probably) arrive when atmospheric carbon hits 450ppm. We are now at 387ppm and gaining 2ppm/year. That means we will pass the point of no return around 2040.
- The projections are for 250 million to one billion climate change refugees by 2050.
Bottom Line: Somewhere out there is a future that "we" control, and we are going to have to change our ways if we are going to avoid the nasty version of our future -- a planet that looks like the picture above :(