21 Jun 2008

Climate Variability

via Washington Post:
As greenhouse-gas emissions rise, North America is likely to experience more droughts and excessive heat in some regions even as intense downpours and hurricanes pound others more often, according to a report issued yesterday by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
Bottom Line: Global warming is not about warmer days but greater variation in climactic conditions. We're in for a roller-coaster ride.


  1. Global Warming is not a Doomsday Prophesy it is a wake up call. The first thing we need to do is help make some changes in our national mind set from one that lets us believe that our earth can recover from anything, to one that lets us believe that our earth could use a little help.
    Developing cleaner ways to produce electricity is not going to hurt a thing, if it doe’s nothing but make the air we breathe cleaner it works for me.
    Developing alternative fuels to power our transportation needs , again won’t hurt a thing, reduce the demand for oil you reduce the price we pay for it, I think everyone can say “that works for me” to this.
    In our everyday life one of best ways to help focus your individual mind set in the right direction is to say to yourself each morning, “Today I will do no harm to the earth” I do this it works, I find myself doing little things that in the long run enriches my life, again it don’t hurt a thing.
    I could go on about this all day but I won’t. I’m a global warming advocate but, not because of some unfounded fear of Doomsday but (as you may have guessed by now) because it won’t hurt a thing to help our earth recover from years of industrial plunder.

    Luke Sexton

  2. David,

    Can you elaborate on what you mean? I'm not doing a "gotcha" but I think some people (not necessarily you) are getting ahead of what the IPCC actually says on this issue.

    E.g. are you saying it is an established fact that hurricanes will be more intense because of AGW?

  3. Bob: I say "it is an established fact that hurricanes are more likely to be more intense because of AGW"

  4. David wrote:

    Bob: I say "it is an established fact that hurricanes are more likely to be more intense because of AGW"

    OK fair enough. I looked it up in the IPCC AR4 and it's rather nuanced, but your position looks good. They say that tropical storms will be less frequent, but more severe:

    "Most recent published modelling studies investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of the most intense tropical cyclones." (p. 751)


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